On Thinking in Bets — Annie Duke
A good decision and a good outcome are not the same thing. Annie Duke, a former professional poker player, gives the confusion a name — resulting — and it is the most expensive mistake in finance precisely because it disguises itself as success.
Winning on a bad decision is the market paying you to repeat it.
Duke reframes every choice as a bet placed on an uncertain future with incomplete information. Under that lens, the outcome tells you almost nothing about the decision. A brilliant call can lose; a reckless one can pay. Over a single hand, luck dominates. Over a thousand, process do…